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- W1583484992 abstract "[1] This study examines the performance of malaria-relevant climate variables from the ENSEMBLES seasonal ensemble re-forecasts for sub-Saharan West Africa, using a dynamic malaria model to transform temperature and rainfall forecasts into simulated malaria incidence and verifying these forecasts against simulations obtained by driving the malaria model with General Circulation Model-derived reanalysis. Two subregions of forecast skill are identified: the highlands of Cameroon, where low temperatures limit simulated malaria during the forecast period and interannual variability in simulated malaria is closely linked to variability in temperature, and northern Nigeria/southern Niger, where simulated malaria variability is strongly associated with rainfall variability during the peak rain months." @default.
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- W1583484992 date "2012-12-15" @default.
- W1583484992 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W1583484992 title "Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa" @default.
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- W1583484992 doi "https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl054040" @default.
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