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• W1591346119 abstract "Demographic developments have played an important role in the structureand functioning of the Earth's system. The exponential population growthof the last century has led to high pressures on the environmentalsystem, with the issue of hunger as representative of harmful effects. Despite the fact that the population growth is currently negative in someof the world's regions, the world population is expected to increase, atleast in the next couple of decades. Looking at the three basiscomponents of the demographic changes, fertility, mortality andmigration, one can better understand the dynamics and changes in size andstructure of future populations. De simultaneous developments of thesecomponents are known as the demographic transition theory. There areseveral institutions involved in developing and publishing populationprojections. The Population Division of the United Nations is possiblythe best known institution, responsible for population projections up to2050 for the majority of countries in the world. In addition to the UNprojections, other projections are made on the national (e.g. theNetherlands) and regional scales (e.g. European). However, withdifferent institutions developing projections at different aggregationlevels, inconsistencies over the various geographical scales are almostinevitable. Furthermore, rock-solid sets of assumptions are oftenlacking, and uncertainties are only included by the definition of high,medium and low variants. One of the ways to deal with uncertainties maybe application of a scenario. Instead of covering up uncertainties withrather meaningless variants, a scenario methodology allows one or moreconsistent images of the future to be created. The IPCC has applied thismethodology to gain better insights into future emission paths, resultingin an advanced and useful set of scenarios. In this approach, the twomost relevant trends to cover most of the future uncertainties have beendistinguished. These trends are globalization versus regionalization,and individualism/market orientation versus collectivity. Theircombination will result in four scenarios.The scenario approach has beenapplied to three aggregation levels, the Netherlands, Europe and the 17major world regions. In these applications the assumptions on fertility,mortality and migration are, to the furthest extent, based on theunderlying socio-economic and environmental determinants. By using thesame methodology in all applications, a set of scenarios is created thatis consistent for the various geographical scales. The associatedsimulation results show an assorted set of images of the futurepopulation." @default.
• W1591346119 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W1591346119 date "2004-02-24" @default.
• W1591346119 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W1591346119 title "Population and Scenarios: Worlds towin?" @default.
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