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• W1607514689 abstract "Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of nature’s most intense phenomena and one of all coastal residents’ greatest fears. They threaten the maritime industry, devastate coastal regions and cause floods and erosion inland through torrential rainfall, high winds and severe storm surges. Through coastal development and growth, the United States has become more vulnerable to the impact of hurricanes now than at any time in the recent past (Pielke & Pielke, 1997). An extreme example was Hurricane Katrina during the summer of 2005. Owing to the great social and economic impact of hurricanes, it is of great importance that the track and intensity of these hurricanes can be accurately predicted many hours in advance. Over the last two decades, computer modeling and data assimilation techniques have advanced rapidly. Along with the development of high-resolution numerical modeling and advanced data assimilation capabilities, the skill of numerical weather prediction has improved significantly. As a result of these efforts, TC track forecasts have improved substantially. However, the intensity forecast remains a great challenge in the operational and research communities. According to reports from Rogers et al. (2006) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC, http:/ / www.nhc.noaa.gov/ verification), the official 48 h TC track forecast error has been reduced by 45% in the past 15 years, while the intensity forecast error has decreased by only 17%. The rapid intensification of TCs has been especially poorly predicted (Titley & Elsberry, 2000; Houze et al., 2006). The lack of skill in numerical forecasts of TC intensity can be attributed to three factors (Rogers et al., 2006): 1) inaccurate initial conditions in the storm vortex and environment in numerical models; 2) limitations in numerical models such as imperfect physical parameterizations; and 3) inadequate understanding of the physics of TCs and their development. Among other factors, the uncertainties in hurricane initialization are some of the fundamental reasons for the limited skill in hurricane forecasts. The processes associated with TC intensifications have been investigated in numerous previous studies (e.g., Malkus, 1958; Willoughby, 1988; Frank & Ritchie, 1999; Montgomery et al., 2006). It has been recognized that the large scale environmental conditions such as vertical wind shear, pre-existing upper level troughs, mesoscale convections, storm-scale" @default.
• W1607514689 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W1607514689 creator A5080150640 @default.
• W1607514689 date "2011-04-19" @default.
• W1607514689 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
• W1607514689 title "Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasting through Data Assimilation: Environmental Conditions Versus the Vortex Initialization" @default.
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• W1607514689 doi "https://doi.org/10.5772/14224" @default.
• W1607514689 hasPublicationYear "2011" @default.
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