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- W1624888920 abstract "Solar activity affects the shape of the corona as well as the size of the heliosphere. Also, it has a bearing on the quality of life issues on earth. So it is important that its level be forecast in a reliable manner, well ahead of time, to allow for proper planning. At Solar Wind Nine, I reported on the discovery of a three‐cycle quasi‐periodicity in the magnetized solar wind from the polar coronal holes late in the descending phase of a cycle. This led us to develop a procedure for forecasting the amplitude and the rise time of solar cycle 23. We predicted a moderate cycle 23 with a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) at its maximum, in early 2000: 131.5+33/−20. The solar astronomers criticized our prediction as being overly on the low side and unlikely to come true. So far, our forecast is right on the mark. We review the solar and geophysical data as of the end of May 2002 and describe the present state of cycle 23 in relation to those observed over a 400‐year period and the lessons learned by us from this exercise." @default.
- W1624888920 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W1624888920 date "2003-01-01" @default.
- W1624888920 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W1624888920 title "Meandering Path to Solar Activity Forecast for Cycle 23" @default.
- W1624888920 cites W1586251589 @default.
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- W1624888920 doi "https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1618570" @default.
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