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• W1638030136 abstract "The precise transformation between the celestial (ICRF) and terrestrial (ITRF) reference frames is needed for many advanced geodetic and astronomical tasks. To perform this transformation for the time moment of observation the precise EOP predictions have to be known. This paper presents the current status of the Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (EOP PCC), which started in October 2005 under the umbrella of the IERS (International Earth rotation and Reference systems Service). The ultra-short term, short term and medium term EOP predictions submitted since then by different groups were evaluated by means of the same statistical analysis. The mean prediction errors of the EOP with respect to IERS C04 data for each proposed algorithm were computed to show the performance in each prediction category. In October 2006 the EOP PCC rules were slightly changed, however all prediction results before this moment were transformed according to the new conventions. 1. OBJECTIVES The main objective of the EOP PCC is to compare the various methods, models, techniques and strategies which can be applied for EOP predictions. We use the same statistical method for all results, and what is different from many other studies we collect predictions before any EOP observations are available. Our main goal is to investigate the EOP time series as well as other data strongly correlated with the EOP (e.g. AAM and OAM). We also expect the final conclusions to be useful for the operational computation of the EOP. 2. MAIN RULES The EOP PCC provides three categories of the predictions: ultra short-term (for 10 days), short-term (for 30 days) and medium-term (for 500 days). This is a consequence of our assumption that in general short and long term predictions require different strategies and techniques. In that case each participant can submit any type of the prediction of any EOP except ultra short-term and short-term predictions of dX , dY or dψ, de. Various prediction techniques can be applied by the same participant. This allows to provide different and very specific algorithms adjusted to each category. After joining the EOP PCC a participant is asked to submit the specified predictions every Thursday with one day delay. Then all the submissions are being processed and the current results are available on the official EOP PCC website: http://www.cbk.waw.pl/EOP PCC/. 3. ANALYSES Thanks to the EOP PCC participants (Tab. 1) we received a few thousands of predictions. Such a valuable collection give us an opportunity to perform many unique statistical analysis. Unfortunately, a reliable comparison of the submissions cannot be performed directly since very often predictions sent by different participants are referred to different prediction epochs. The detailed investigation of predictions also shows that some of them have unexpected high errors mostly caused by human mistake rather than by the applied prediction technique. The substantial reduction of mentioned problems is performed by means of the median absolute prediction error (MDAE) computed for all predicted EOP. For i day in" @default.
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• W1638030136 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W1638030136 title "Current Results of the Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign" @default.
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