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- W16388518 abstract "The potential effects of climate change on forests are of increasing concern. A number of studies based on forest simulation models predict substantial alteration of forest composition, forest dieback, or even loss of forest cover in response to increased temperatures associated with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, the structure of these computer models may cause them to overemphasize the role of climate in controlling tree growth and mortality. Model functions that represent the influence of climate on tree growth are based on the geographic range limits of a species, predicting maximal growth in the center of the range and zero growth (100% mortality) at the range limits and beyond. Many tree species can survive in climatic conditions outside their present range limits and can tolerate widely fluctuating climate regimes. Hence, there is reason to suspect that published projections of forest responses to climate change may exaggerate the direct impact of climate on tree growth and mortality. We propose that forest simulation models be reformulated with more realistic representations of growth responses to temperature, moisture, mortality and dispersal. We believe that only when these models more accurately reflect the physiological bases of the responses of tree species to climate variablesmore » can they be used to simulate responses of forests to rapid changes in climate. We argue that direct forest responses to climate change projected by such a reformulated model may be less traumatic and more gradual than those projected by current models.« less" @default.
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- W16388518 date "1995-06-01" @default.
- W16388518 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W16388518 title "Model-based assessments of climate change effects on forests" @default.
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