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• W166669401 abstract "What I have come to call “meta-cognitive myopia” (MM), using a term once suggested by Robyn Dawes, is the phenomenon that people are pretty accurate in utilizing even large amounts of stimulus information, whereas they are naive and almost blind regarding the history and validity of the stimulus data. This uncritical reliance on the information given is the most conspicuous when the task context makes it crystal-clear that the stimulus data should not be trusted. In the introduction, MM is located within a broader framework of meta-cognition research, and several examples are provided to illustrate the phenomenon. The central message is laid out that MM offers an alternative account of many biases in judgment and decision making, which have been traditionally explained in terms of capacity constraints, limited reasoning ability, motivational forces, or severely biased environmental input. The explanatory power of the MM construct, and its theoretical potential to predict new findings, is then demonstrated in a major review section with reference to five paradigms: inability to discard irrelevant information; utilization of selectively sampled information; conditional inference biases; sample-size neglect; and myopia for the impact of aggregation levels. The final discussion is concerned with the learning origins of MM and the question of why evolution did not equip Homo sapiens with more effective meta-cognitive tools. An analysis of the costs and benefits will reveal that MM may serve important adaptive functions, and that eliminating MM may have maladaptive effects. Nevertheless, in the context of many real decision problems, the costs and irrational consequences of MM cannot be denied. The final discussion therefore focuses on possible ways to avoid and alleviate MM and its irrational consequences." @default.
• W166669401 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W166669401 creator A5043542278 @default.
• W166669401 date "2012-01-01" @default.
• W166669401 modified "2023-10-02" @default.
• W166669401 title "Meta-Cognitive Myopia and the Dilemmas of Inductive-Statistical Inference" @default.
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