Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W1683811124> ?p ?o ?g. }
Showing items 1 to 63 of
63
with 100 items per page.
- W1683811124 abstract "Official forecasts of international institutions are never purely model-based. Preliminary results of models are adjusted with expert opinions. What is the impact of these adjustments for the forecasts? Are they necessary to get 'optimal' forecasts? When model-based forecasts are adjusted by experts, the loss function of these forecasts is not a mean squared error loss function. In fact, the overall loss function is unknown. To examine the quality of these forecasts, one can rely on the tests for forecast optimality under unknown loss function as developed in Patton and Timmermann (2007). We apply one of these tests to ten variables for which we have model-based forecasts and expert-adjusted forecasts, all generated by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). For almost all variables the added expertise yields better forecasts in terms of fit. In terms of optimality, the effect of adjustments for the forecasts is limited, because for most variables the assumption that the forecast are not optimal can be rejected for both the model-based and the expert-adjusted forecasts." @default.
- W1683811124 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W1683811124 creator A5001619776 @default.
- W1683811124 creator A5020813411 @default.
- W1683811124 creator A5064321959 @default.
- W1683811124 date "2007-09-20" @default.
- W1683811124 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W1683811124 title "On the optimality of expert-adjusted forecasts" @default.
- W1683811124 hasPublicationYear "2007" @default.
- W1683811124 type Work @default.
- W1683811124 sameAs 1683811124 @default.
- W1683811124 citedByCount "1" @default.
- W1683811124 crossrefType "posted-content" @default.
- W1683811124 hasAuthorship W1683811124A5001619776 @default.
- W1683811124 hasAuthorship W1683811124A5020813411 @default.
- W1683811124 hasAuthorship W1683811124A5064321959 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConcept C120954023 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConcept C14036430 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConcept C149782125 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConcept C162324750 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConcept C170061395 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConcept C174303752 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConcept C78458016 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConcept C86803240 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConceptScore W1683811124C105795698 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConceptScore W1683811124C120954023 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConceptScore W1683811124C14036430 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConceptScore W1683811124C149782125 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConceptScore W1683811124C162324750 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConceptScore W1683811124C170061395 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConceptScore W1683811124C174303752 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConceptScore W1683811124C33923547 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConceptScore W1683811124C78458016 @default.
- W1683811124 hasConceptScore W1683811124C86803240 @default.
- W1683811124 hasLocation W16838111241 @default.
- W1683811124 hasOpenAccess W1683811124 @default.
- W1683811124 hasPrimaryLocation W16838111241 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W1426470702 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W1539197848 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W1779127032 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W1967093102 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W1969115609 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W2005690018 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W2038877803 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W2069984887 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W2092352363 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W2134974113 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W2474394684 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W2571438370 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W2911044070 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W3111153487 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W3121571324 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W3122132423 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W3123558318 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W3125148178 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W3142751277 @default.
- W1683811124 hasRelatedWork W3125929439 @default.
- W1683811124 isParatext "false" @default.
- W1683811124 isRetracted "false" @default.
- W1683811124 magId "1683811124" @default.
- W1683811124 workType "article" @default.