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• W169483043 abstract "WITH THE economy humming along in spite of the Asian debacle, not much is being heard lately about lowering immigration rates. But the boom can't last forever, and, when the next recession comes, it is likely to generate some anti-immigrant sentiment (plus the inevitable anti-school sentiment). The Sixth Bracey Report summarized a monograph on this issue by the late Julian Simon of the University of Maryland. His was a largely positive analysis, and he noted that only in poor areas with stagnant economies did new immigrants inhibit the job chances of natives. A new summary analysis by Lucinda Vargas and Beverly Fox Kellam of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank presents a somewhat more complex picture. Their work appears in the September/October issue of Southwest Economy, published by the bank, and it can be found on-line at www.dallas.fed.org/publications/swe/txt/swe_current.html (cybernote to readers: my browser, though the most recent version, sometimes objects to these extended addresses, but it is easy enough to get to the publication by starting with www.dallasfed.org). The impact of immigration looms large both for education and for the economy. Half of the projected growth in the U.S. population will come from new immigrants. More than half of the growth in the U.S. labor force between 1995 and 2025 will come from post-1995 immigrants and their progeny. Without these immigrants, the labor force would start to decline in size around 2015. As I have pointed out in several places, while the proportion of jobs requiring high levels of education and skill is increasing as a proportion of all jobs, the greatest numbers of jobs are at the low end of the scale. The estimate from Vargas and Kellam is that, by 2005, half of all jobs will still require at most a high school education. Immigrants assist the economy at both ends of the spectrum of education and skills. They are disproportionately represented among doctors, chemists, engineers, and physics professors, for example. But they are also disproportionately those who occupy the roles of waiters, housekeepers, and agricultural and textile workers - not to mention janitors, maids, and taxi drivers. A conversation between a taxi driver who is confused about his destination and his dispatcher who is trying to help can be a wondrous thing to behold these days as a recent immigrant from Iran struggles to understand an even more recent arrival from Ghana. Vargas and Kellam also point out that immigrants are well represented in occupations that require little education but much skill, such as tailors, dressmakers, and jewelers. The authors are to be commended for making a distinction that is too often lost today - that between skills and education. When the Ford Motor Company decided to put an engine assembly plant in Chihuahua, Mexico, many observers said the company was crazy, because the educational levels there were too low. The company initially required a ninth-grade education - in a country where the average is sixth grade - and then dropped the requirement on discovering that people could be trained. American industry as a whole needs to learn Ford's lesson. Immigration does push down wages for low-skilled jobs. Between 1980 and 1994, immigration was responsible for about half of the wage decrease for these jobs. Those who are most at risk for job loss and wage reduction are the previous wave of immigrants. Wages for jobs that require high skills rose, however, indicating that immigrants who can fill these jobs are not saturating the market. Overall, immigrants are estimated to add about $10 billion a year to the economy. A modest sum for a $7.6 trillion dollar economy, to be sure, but a positive contribution nonetheless. As with so many statistics, overall figures look different when they are disaggregated. At the state and local levels, the impact of immigration depends on concentration. …" @default.
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• W169483043 date "1999-01-01" @default.
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• W169483043 title "The Research Impact of Immigration" @default.
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