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• W1736367839 abstract "An objective forecast is one that is made without recourse to the personal judgment of the forecaster. Strictly speaking, if two forecasters were given copies of one manual describing a forecast method and placed in separate rooms with current data, they would make identical forecasts. The desirability of objectivity should be apparent to forecasters and forecast users alike. Its primary purpose is to bring forecasters closer to the elusive goal of accuracy. In an objective method, meteorological parameters appear in formulas or relations that are theoretical or empirical, in graphical, tabular, or algebraic forms. Not only should the objective device have, on paper, the knowledge and techniques by which an experienced forecaster makes his decision, but it should surpass the limited mental process of even the best forecasters in coordinating previous meteorological events into a unified pattern relating cause to effect. There are many limitations and difficulties of objective forecasting. Atmospheric motions and conditions are far too turbulent and complex to be reduced to a single mathematical model or to be unified by a system of equations completely relating cause and effect. As opposed to subjective forecasting, an objective system can use only a limited number of parameters as predictors of future events. This chapter discusses the classification of objective studies under the titles of devices, predictors, predictands, and other newer techniques. Furthermore, this chapter takes a look at the methods of determining success, the degree of accuracy, and the future of objective methods." @default.
• W1736367839 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W1736367839 creator A5058234877 @default.
• W1736367839 date "1955-01-01" @default.
• W1736367839 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W1736367839 title "Methods of Objective Weather Forecasting" @default.
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• W1736367839 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0065-2687(08)60311-8" @default.
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