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- W1786496879 abstract "Many psychology experiments show that individually judged probabilities of the same event can vary depending on the partition of the state space (a framing effect called partition-dependence). We show that these biases transfer to competitive prediction markets in which multiple informed traders are provided economic incentives to bet on their beliefs about events. We report results of a short controlled lab study, a longer field experiment (betting on the NBA playoffs and the FIFA World Cup), and naturally-occurring trading in macro-economic derivatives. The combined evidence suggests that partition-dependence can exist and persist in lab and field prediction markets." @default.
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- W1786496879 date "2008-01-01" @default.
- W1786496879 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W1786496879 title "Partition-Dependent Framing Effects in Lab and Field Prediction Markets" @default.
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- W1786496879 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1099073" @default.
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