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• W179612038 abstract "Az elelmiszerarak novekedese 2006–2008 kozott a vilag egyes tersegeiben zavargasokhoz es a politikai stabilitas megrendulesehez vezetett. Kulonosen fejlődő orszagokban sulyos a helyzet, ahol a legszegenyebb retegek jovedelmuk dontő hanyadat elelmiszerekre koltik. Az agrarpiacokon a kereslet valt meghatarozova, mennyisegi (humancelu es ipari felhasznalas rohamos novekedese) es minősegi ertelemben (elelmiszer-fogyasztas szerkezetenek valtozasa). Arkilengesek persze korabban is előfordultak, de a 2007/2008-as gazdasagi evben tapasztalt arsokkot szamos tenyező egyuttesen idezte elő, első helyen a vilag gabona- es olajosmag-keszleteinek megcsappanasa. Az elelmezesbiztonsagban fontos a fizikai kinalat, mert az emberek rettegnek attol, hogy nem jutnak elelemhez, meg akkor sem, ha van elegendő penzuk az elelmiszerek vasarlasahoz, vagyis az elelmiszerhez valo hozzajutas kockazatarol van szo. A varhato ujabb elelmiszervalsag elsődleges oka a kereslet novekedese es a kinalat fluktuacioja lesz, mivel az elelmiszer iranti kereslet jovedelemrugalmassaga cse¬kely. Az elelmiszer-kinalat valtozasat elsősorban a vizhiany hatarozza meg. A spekulacio fontos szerepet tolt be a piaci likviditasban, ugyanakkor novelheti az arak volatilitasat is. A novekvő olajarak miatt egyre inkabb előterbe kerul az energiabiztonsag kerdese, ami a biouzemanyag-gyartas tovabbi novelesehez vezet. A biouzemanyag-gyartas egyelőre elsősorban a belső piac igenyeit elegiti ki. A vilag ket legnagyobb biouzemanyag-piaca az USA es Brazilia, a nemzetkozi beruhazasok fő kedvezmenyezettjei pedig Brazilia es Europa. Brazilia azert vonzo befektetői celpont, mert bőseges nyersanyaggal es feldolgozoi kapacitassal, valamint potencialis exportpiaccal rendelkezik. Az USA es Brazilia komoly netto exportőr a biouzemanyag-gyartasban felhasznalt nyersanyagokbol, ezzel szemben az EU, a vilag első szamu biodizel-gyartoja pedig netto importőr olajnovenyekből es novenyolajbol. Az osszes uzemanyag-fogyasztason belul tovabb nő a gazolaj mar amugy is magas, kozel 65%-os aranya. Ebből kovetkezik, hogy az EU dizelolajbol is egyre nagyobb importra szorul, benzinből viszont egyre nagyobb exportra kenyszerul. A paradox helyzetet mutatja, hogy a netto gabonaexportőri pozicio az etanoltermelesnek kedvezne, de az uzemanyag-fogyasztason belul a benzin csokkenő aranya a biodizelhez kepest relative kevesebb etanol bekevereset jelenti. Az USA-ban a gabona 30%-a, az EU-ban 3%-a es Kinaban 1,5%-a szolgalta az uzem-anyagcelu etanoltermelest. Az etanolgyartasban felhasznalt nadcukor es cukorrepa aranya meghaladja az eves globalis termeles 10%-at. Ennek ellenere az etanolgyartas szereny mertekben befolyasolja a cukor vilagkereskedelmet, ugyanis Braziliaban a kombinalt cukor- es etanolgyartassal foglalkozo uzemek aranyatol es termelesi dontesetől fugg, hogy eppen mennyi cukrot, illetve etanolt allitanak elő. Mivel az etanol- es cukortermelesre egyarant alkalmas feldolgozok aranya viszonylag kicsi, ezert csak nehany szazalekban valtozhat a cukornad felhasznalasa etanol- es cukorgyartasra. A biodizel-gyartas hatasa a globalis novenyolajpiacra mar sokkal jelentősebb, mert 2009-ben a vilagszerte előallitott novenyolaj 11%-abol keszult biodizel. Az EU-27-ben az osszes novenyolaj-termeles ketharmadat teszi ki a biodizel nyersanyag¬szukseglete. Eszak- es Del-Amerikaban az elmult evekben tobbszorosere nőtt a novenyolaj biodizelcelu felhasznalasa, ami az osszes termeles mar tobb mint 10%-at jelenti. Osszessegeben aligha lehet szo komoly konfliktusrol az elelmiszer- es energiatermeles kozott. A masodik generacios biouzemanyagok kiterjedt piaci bevezetese meg varat magara. Egyelőre meg csak korlatozott mertekben hasznalnak fel cellulozalapu nyersanyagokat a bioetanol-gyartasban, illetve allati zsirokat es hasznalt sutőolajat a biodizel-gyartasban. A 2007/2008-as gazdasagi evben kialakult feszultseg az elelmiszer- es biouzemanyag-előallitas kozott ujra napirendre kerul(het), amikor a globalis gabona- es olajosmag-keszletek csokkenesevel parhuzamosan ujra emelkednek az arak. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Between 2006 and 2008 the apparently endless increase of food prices led to unrest and political instability in some parts of the world. The situation is especially grave in the developing countries, where the poorer groups of society spend the majority of their income on food. Agricultural markets have become demand-led markets, not only in terms of quantity (quick increase in demand for both human consumption and industrial processing) but also in terms of quality (the structure of food consumption is changing). There had of course been extreme low and high prices before, but the price shock experienced in the 2007/2008 business year was the combined result of several factors. The primary factor was a reduction in the global stocks of cereals and oilseeds. From the aspect of food security, physical supply is important. People are terrified that they cannot obtain food even if they have sufficient money to buy it, i.e. it is about the risk of access to food. The primary cause of the expected new food crisis is the increase in demand and the fluctuation of supply, as demand for food does not readily adapt to peoples’ income levels. Changes in food supply are primarily determined by trends in water insufficiency. Speculation has an important role in sustaining market liquidity, but may contribute to the volatility of prices. Increasing oil prices are putting the issue of energy security in the limelight, which further boosts biofuel production. In line with the country’s national energy policy, biofuel production so far addresses the demands in the domestic market. In recent years, however, an increase in foreign investments could also be seen. The USA and Brazil are the two largest biofuel markets in the world, while the main recipients of international investments are Brazil and Europe. The attractiveness of Brazil lies in the fact that it has plenty of raw materials and processing capacity, as well as export potential. The US and Brazil are serious net exporters of raw materials used in biofuel production. The EU – the world’s number one biodiesel producer –, on the other hand, is a net importer of oil crops and vegetable oil. The ratio of diesel oil to all fuels consumed is already high at nearly 65% and continues to increase. Consequently, the EU needs to import increasing quantities of diesel oil and is forced to increase its gasoline export. Paradoxically, the region’s position as a net exporter of cereals would be conducive to ethanol production, but the decreasing ratio of gasoline to all fuels consumed means that compared to biodiesel, less ethanol can be mixed. The corresponding figure is 30% in the US, 3% in Europe and 1.5% in China. The amount of cane sugar and sugar beet used for ethanol production exceeds 10% of the annual global production. Still, ethanol production influences the world trade of sugar only mildly, as the ratio and production decisions of combined sugar-and-ethanol plants in Brazil determine how much sugar and ethanol they produce at any given time. As the ratio of processing plants capable of producing both ethanol and sugar is relatively low, the ratio of sugar cane quantities used for ethanol production and for sugar production varies only be a few per cents. The effect of biodiesel production on the global market of vegetable oils is much more significant, as 11% of all vegetable oil produced worldwide was turned into biodiesel in 2009. In the EU-27, two thirds of all vegetable oil produced are used as raw material for biodiesel production. In North and South America, the volume of vegetable oils used for biodiesel production has multiplied over the recent years, now exceeding 10% of the total production. Extensive introduction of second generation biofuels to the market is delayed. The processing of cellulose-based raw materials in bioethanol production, as well as the processing of animal fats and used frying oil for biodiesel production, remains limited. The tension between food and biofuel production, which emerged in the 2007/2008 business year, could resurface when prices begin to rise again in parallel with the reduction in global cereal and oilseed stocks." @default.
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• W179612038 date "2010-01-01" @default.
• W179612038 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W179612038 title "Újabb feszültség a láthatáron az élelmiszer- és bioüzemanyag-ipar között?" @default.
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