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- W1802869677 abstract "cult as it is important. If it is not to be dassed with crystal-ball gazing, it must be based on something more than a hunch. In the past, unfortunately, too much economic prognostication has been largely hunch guessing. How wrong too often such guesstimates have been can be judged by the mistake of Government economists who at the end of World War II estimated there would be 6 millon unemployed in 1946 and that a period of one to two years would be required to convert from war to peacetime production. Because one is dealing with the future, which no human mind can foresee, and because one is dealing with human beings whose actions and reactions no finite mind would dare predict with certitude, one can at best merely presume that on the basis of existing known factors and conditions such and such may happen. The longer the period, the more likely the prognosticator will be incorrect in his prediction. It is my guess that mistakes in forecasting are largely due to fear, bias, and wishful thinking. Contrary to the general belief at the time, some of us predicated that there would be severe inflation in the postwar period. Our forecast was made on the basis of the dammed-up savings accumulated during the war owing to full employment, high incomes, and shortages of goods, plus a depression and war-deferred demand for practically every kind of good and service in the market. Under these circumstances inflation was inevitable. Those who predicted deflation and a large volume of unemployment simply carried over into the postwar period a depressioncreated psychosis." @default.
- W1802869677 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W1802869677 date "1953-02-01" @default.
- W1802869677 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W1802869677 title "The Economic Outlook" @default.
- W1802869677 doi "https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v9.n1.47" @default.
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