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• W1813745195 abstract "In prediction markets, investors trade assets whose values are contingent on the occurrenceof future events, like election outcomes. Prediction market prices have beenshown to be consistently accurate forecasts of these outcomes, but we don't knowwhy. I formally illustrate an information acquisition explanation. Traders with morewealth to invest have stronger incentives to acquire information about the outcome,thus tend to have better forecasts. Moreover, their trades have larger weight in themarket. The interaction implies that a few well-situated traders can move the assetprice toward the true value. One implication for institutions aggregating informationis to put more weight on votes of agents with larger stakes, which improves on equalweighting, unless prior distribution accuracy and stakes are negatively related." @default.
• W1813745195 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W1813745195 creator A5080832843 @default.
• W1813745195 date "2014-01-01" @default.
• W1813745195 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
• W1813745195 title "Why Prediction Markets Work: The Role of Information Acquisition and Endogenous Weighting" @default.
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• W1813745195 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2441294" @default.
• W1813745195 hasPublicationYear "2014" @default.
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