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• W1814271685 abstract "ABSTRACTWe propose a statistical approach to modelling for predicting and simulating occurrences of tornadoes and accumulated cost distributions over a time interval. This is achieved by modelling the tornado intensity, measured with the Fujita scale, as a stochastic process. Since the Fujita scale divides tornado intensity into six states, it is possible to model the tornado intensity by using Markov and semi-Markov models. We demonstrate that the semi-Markov approach is able to reproduce the duration effect that is detected in tornado occurrence. The superiority of the semi-Markov model as compared to the Markov chain model is also affirmed by means of a statistical test of hypothesis. As an application, we compute the expected value and the variance of the costs generated by the tornadoes over a given time interval in a given area. The paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating that semi-Markov models represent an effective tool for physical analysis of tornadoes as well as for the estimation..." @default.
• W1814271685 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W1814271685 date "2016-01-06" @default.
• W1814271685 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W1814271685 title "Tornadoes and related damage costs: statistical modelling with a semi-Markov approach" @default.
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• W1814271685 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2015.1124462" @default.
• W1814271685 hasPublicationYear "2016" @default.
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