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• W181664316 abstract "The overall aim of BIOCLIM is to assess thepossible long term impacts due to climatechange on the safety of radioactive wasterepositories in deep formations. This aim is addressedthrough the following specific objectives:• Development of practical and innovative strategiesfor representing sequential climatic changes to thegeosphere-biosphere system for existing sites overcentral Europe, addressing the timescale of onemillion years, which is relevant to the geologicaldisposal of radioactive waste.• Exploration and evaluation of the potential effects ofclimate change on the nature of the biospheresystems used to assess the environmental impact.• Dissemination of information on the newmethodologies and the results obtained from theproject among the international waste managementcommunity for use in performance assessments ofpotential or planned radioactive waste repositories.A key point of the project is therefore to developstrategies for representing sequential long-termclimatic changes by addressing time scales ofrelevance to geological disposal of solid radioactivewastes. The integrated strategy, which first step isdescribed in this deliverable (D7), consists of buildingan integrated, dynamic climate model, to represent allthe known important mechanisms for long termclimatic variations. The time-dependent results will thenbe interpreted in terms of regional climate using rulebasedand statistical downscaling approaches.Therefore, the continuous simulation of the climateevolution of the next 200 000 years selected for studyis a major objective of the BIOCLIM project. Thisrequires models that account for the simultaneousevolution of the atmosphere, biosphere, land-ice andthe ocean. To be able to perform several 200 000-yearlongtransient climate simulations, the models have toinclude all these components, but also need to besimple enough to run fast. Therefore, climate models ofintermediate complexity have been chosen to completethis part of the BIOCLIM project.In the present deliverable, we report on the resultsof two such models, MoBidiC (Louvain-la-Neuve) andCLIMBER-GREMLINS (LSCE). The overall objective ofthe work presented here is the simulation of the climateof the next 200 000 years for three different CO2scenarios [Ref.1]. However, both models used forthis work have been either modified for the project(MoBidiC) or developed within the project (CLIMBERGREMLINS).Therefore their performance, and themodifications and developments needed to bedocumented, especially as far as their ability toreproduce past and different climates is concerned.Therefore, a large section of the present deliverable isdevoted to the evaluation of the models through pastclimate simulations.The deliverable is structured as follows: first, a briefdescription of the models is given. In the secondsection, results from the models for past climatesituations are presented. The third section deals withthe future climate simulations devised for the BIOCLIMproject: for each CO2 scenario, the results of the twomodels are compared.It is emphasized that the model results, especiallythose for CLIMBER-GREMLINS, should be regarded asillustrations of possibilities rather than absolutepredictions of climate evolution. The novel approach tolong-term climate change adopted in BIOCLIM is basedon research tools under continuing development,notably, the CLIMBER-GREMLINS model." @default.
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• W181664316 date "2003-01-01" @default.
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• W181664316 title "Deliverable D7: Continuous climate evolution scenarios over western Europe (1000 km) scale. Work Package 2, Simulation of the future evolution of the biosphere system using the hierarchical strategy. Modelling Sequential Biosphere Systems under Climate Change for Radioactive Waste Disposal (BIOCLIM)" @default.
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