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- W1892953685 abstract "Summary Increases of oil price in the last decade have fueled a financial boom and contributed to the subsequent bust in ways that have largely been unrecognized. Due to the international nature of the oil trade, these economic impacts led directly to more competitive (and contentious) foreign relations. The negative impact on the US of buying foreign oil now is significantly different from that of the earlier price increases of the 1970s and early ‘80s because of the context in which it occurs. Today the US has both substantially more sovereign debt (about twice as much as a percent of GDP) and a large negative balance of trade, of which the prime contributors are oil and trade with China. These factors inhibit the ability of the US economy to grow out of the downturn. A second impact, unique to oil, is the rapid creation of a massive amount of liquid capital. The large amount of capital flowing to the Gulf States (around $500 billion/year) is largely profit. This capital, when leveraged, produced the cheap and abundant credit which has encouraged excessive sovereign debt and private borrowing. We surmise the low cost of borrowing led to overvaluations (particularly in real estate) and when those investments faltered, the financial community became aware of their risk exposure; this ultimately led to the financial crisis. This article summarizes global oil supply, the role of giant fields, cost of replacement, and physical limits to supply, and presents some implications for foreign policy. We conclude that the combined price and volume of imported oil pose an increasingly significant drag to the US and global economies." @default.
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- W1892953685 date "2011-01-01" @default.
- W1892953685 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W1892953685 title "Economic Limits to Oil Supply: a Non-Hubbert Curve View" @default.
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