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• W1902482560 abstract "CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 64:15-23 (2015) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01309 Contribution to the CR Special: 'Effects of extreme global warming in northern Europe' Sea level rise projections for northern Europe under RCP8.5 Aslak Grinsted1,2,*, Svetlana Jevrejeva2,3, Riccardo E. M. Riva4, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen1 1Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, 2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark 2College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, 100875 Beijing, PR China 3National Oceanographic Centre, Liverpool L3 5DA, UK 4Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CN Delft, The Netherlands *Corresponding author: ag@glaciology.net ABSTRACT: Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Sea level rise is not uniform globally but is affected by a range of regional factors. In this study, we calculate regional projections of 21st century sea level rise in northern Europe, focusing on the British Isles, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea. The input to the regional sea level projection is a probabilistic projection of the major components of the global sea level budget. Local sea level rise is partly compensated by vertical land movement from glacial isostatic adjustment. We explore the uncertainties beyond the likely range provided by the IPCC, including the risk and potential rate of marine ice sheet collapse. Our median 21st century relative sea level rise projection is 0.8 m near London and Hamburg, with a relative sea level drop of 0.1 m in the Bay of Bothnia (near Oulu, Finland). Considerable uncertainties remain in both the sea level budget and in the regional expression of sea level rise. The greatest uncertainties are associated with Antarctic ice loss, and uncertainties are skewed towards higher values, with the 95th percentile being characterized by an additional 0.9 m sea level rise above median projections. KEY WORDS: Regional sea level · Coastal adaptation · British Isles · Fennoscandia · Relative sea level · Tail-risk Full text in pdf format Supplementary material PreviousNextCite this article as: Grinsted A, Jevrejeva S, Riva REM, Dahl-Jensen D (2015) Sea level rise projections for northern Europe under RCP8.5. Clim Res 64:15-23. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01309 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 64, No. 1. Online publication date: June 17, 2015 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2015 Inter-Research." @default.
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• W1902482560 date "2015-06-17" @default.
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• W1902482560 title "Sea level rise projections for northern Europe under RCP8.5" @default.
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