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• W1917088304 abstract "Counseling patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) on their individual risk of short-term mortality is challenging. This study aimed to develop a conditional survival estimate (CSE) for predicting individualized mortality risk in ACHBLF patients.We performed a large prospective cohort study of 278 ACHBLF patients from December 2010 to December 2013 at three participating medical centers. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cumulative overall survival (OS). Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to analyze the risk factors associated with OS. 4-week CSE at X week after diagnostic established were calculated as CS4 = OS(X+4)/OS(X).The actual OS at 2, 4, 6, 8, 12 weeks were 80.5%, 71.8%, 69.3%, 66.0% and 63.7%, respectively. Using CSE, the probability of surviving an additional 4 weeks, given that the patient had survived for 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 weeks was 74%, 86%, 92%, 93%, 97%, respectively. Patients with worse prognostic feathers, including MELD > 25, Child grade C, age > 45, HE, INR > 2.5, demonstrated the greatest increase in CSE over time, when compared with the favorable one (Δ36% vs. Δ10%; Δ28% vs. Δ16%; Δ29% vs. Δ15%; Δ60% vs. Δ12%; Δ33% vs. Δ12%; all P < 0.001; respectively).This easy-to-use CSE can accurately predict the changing probability of survival over time. It may facilitate risk communication between patients and physicians." @default.
• W1917088304 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W1917088304 date "2015-07-15" @default.
• W1917088304 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
• W1917088304 title "Conditional survival estimate of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: A dynamic prediction based on a multicenter cohort" @default.
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• W1917088304 doi "https://doi.org/10.18632/oncotarget.4666" @default.
• W1917088304 hasPubMedCentralId "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/4695116" @default.
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