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• W1926283797 abstract "Summary Negative binomial distributions are fitted to partnership scores and innings scores in test cricket. For partnership scores, we use a parametric model that allows us to consider run rate as a covariate in the distribution of runs scored and hence to use run rate as a surrogate for batting strategy. Then we describe the implied influence of run rate on match outcome probabilities given the state of the match at some point during the third innings; we refer to such a point in the match as the current position. Match outcome probabilities are calculated by using a model for the outcome given the end of the third-innings position, and a model for transitions from the current position to the end of the third-innings position, with transition probabilities considered as a function of run rate. Although the run rate is not wholly in the control of the batting side, our approach at least allows a captain or team analyst to consider the match outcome probability if the team can bat towards a target at a particular run rate. This will then at least indicate whether an aggressive or defensive batting strategy is desirable." @default.
• W1926283797 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W1926283797 date "2010-11-30" @default.
• W1926283797 modified "2023-10-01" @default.
• W1926283797 title "On the Distribution of Runs Scored and Batting Strategy in Test Cricket" @default.
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• W1926283797 doi "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2010.00672.x" @default.
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