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• W1937179675 abstract "In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the risk of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain risk process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical risk level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected models for the risk process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the risk process over the risk level. We illustrate how these probabilistic models and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of risk analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented." @default.
• W1937179675 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W1937179675 date "2015-05-22" @default.
• W1937179675 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W1937179675 title "Modeling Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in Risk Analysis Applications" @default.
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• W1937179675 doi "https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12384" @default.
• W1937179675 hasPubMedId "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26010201" @default.
• W1937179675 hasPublicationYear "2015" @default.
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