Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W1953770855> ?p ?o ?g. }
Showing items 1 to 100 of
100
with 100 items per page.
- W1953770855 endingPage "376" @default.
- W1953770855 startingPage "361" @default.
- W1953770855 abstract "In this study we evaluate the forecast performance of model-averaged forecasts based on the predictive likelihood carrying out a prior sensitivity analysis regarding Zellner's g prior. The main results are fourfold. First, the predictive likelihood does always better than the traditionally employed ‘marginal’ likelihood in settings where the true model is not part of the model space. Secondly, forecast accuracy as measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) is maximized for the median probability model. On the other hand, model averaging excels in predicting direction of changes. Lastly, g should be set according to Laud and Ibrahim (1995: Predictive model selection. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 57: 247–262) with a hold-out sample size of 25% to minimize the RMSE (median model) and 75% to optimize direction of change forecasts (model averaging). We finally apply the aforementioned recommendations to forecast the monthly industrial production output of six countries, beating for almost all countries the AR(1) benchmark model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd." @default.
- W1953770855 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W1953770855 creator A5010596336 @default.
- W1953770855 date "2011-03-25" @default.
- W1953770855 modified "2023-10-03" @default.
- W1953770855 title "Forecast Combination and Bayesian Model Averaging: A Prior Sensitivity Analysis" @default.
- W1953770855 cites W149781026 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W1546358021 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W1985593448 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W1986528915 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W1986783130 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W2020389170 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W2022997908 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W2025349443 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W2026553016 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W2085430754 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W2089763487 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W2092817920 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W2093730348 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W2135728169 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W2152933101 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W2153489418 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W2330192890 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W2602449753 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W3102998992 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W3122206234 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W3124636723 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W3125994899 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W349993008 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W4300988508 @default.
- W1953770855 cites W4362223620 @default.
- W1953770855 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/for.1228" @default.
- W1953770855 hasPublicationYear "2011" @default.
- W1953770855 type Work @default.
- W1953770855 sameAs 1953770855 @default.
- W1953770855 citedByCount "32" @default.
- W1953770855 countsByYear W19537708552012 @default.
- W1953770855 countsByYear W19537708552013 @default.
- W1953770855 countsByYear W19537708552014 @default.
- W1953770855 countsByYear W19537708552015 @default.
- W1953770855 countsByYear W19537708552016 @default.
- W1953770855 countsByYear W19537708552017 @default.
- W1953770855 countsByYear W19537708552018 @default.
- W1953770855 countsByYear W19537708552019 @default.
- W1953770855 countsByYear W19537708552020 @default.
- W1953770855 countsByYear W19537708552021 @default.
- W1953770855 countsByYear W19537708552023 @default.
- W1953770855 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
- W1953770855 hasAuthorship W1953770855A5010596336 @default.
- W1953770855 hasBestOaLocation W19537708552 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConcept C107673813 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConcept C127413603 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConcept C13280743 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConcept C139945424 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConcept C149782125 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConcept C160234255 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConcept C185798385 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConcept C205649164 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConcept C21200559 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConcept C24326235 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConcept C93959086 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConcept C95923904 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConceptScore W1953770855C105795698 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConceptScore W1953770855C107673813 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConceptScore W1953770855C127413603 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConceptScore W1953770855C13280743 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConceptScore W1953770855C139945424 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConceptScore W1953770855C149782125 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConceptScore W1953770855C160234255 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConceptScore W1953770855C185798385 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConceptScore W1953770855C205649164 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConceptScore W1953770855C21200559 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConceptScore W1953770855C24326235 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConceptScore W1953770855C33923547 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConceptScore W1953770855C93959086 @default.
- W1953770855 hasConceptScore W1953770855C95923904 @default.
- W1953770855 hasIssue "4" @default.
- W1953770855 hasLocation W19537708551 @default.
- W1953770855 hasLocation W19537708552 @default.
- W1953770855 hasOpenAccess W1953770855 @default.
- W1953770855 hasPrimaryLocation W19537708551 @default.
- W1953770855 hasRelatedWork W1508288784 @default.
- W1953770855 hasRelatedWork W1605576934 @default.
- W1953770855 hasRelatedWork W1973573159 @default.
- W1953770855 hasRelatedWork W2107280169 @default.
- W1953770855 hasRelatedWork W2144344152 @default.
- W1953770855 hasRelatedWork W2405192631 @default.
- W1953770855 hasRelatedWork W2772689174 @default.
- W1953770855 hasRelatedWork W3104776319 @default.
- W1953770855 hasRelatedWork W3214407380 @default.
- W1953770855 hasRelatedWork W4250043636 @default.
- W1953770855 hasVolume "31" @default.
- W1953770855 isParatext "false" @default.
- W1953770855 isRetracted "false" @default.
- W1953770855 magId "1953770855" @default.
- W1953770855 workType "article" @default.