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• W1963783886 abstract "The Mediterranean basin has been identified as one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climatic and anthropogenic changes. A methodology accounting for the basin specific conditions is developed to assess the current and future water stress state of this region. The medium-term evolution of water stress is investigated using climatic scenarios and a water-use scenario based on efficiency improvements following the recommendations of the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development. Currently, the southern and eastern rims are experiencing high to severe water stress. By the 2050 horizon, a 30–50% decline in freshwater resources is simulated over most of the Mediterranean basin. While total water withdrawals would stabilize, or even decrease (10–40%), in several northern catchments, they would double in southern and eastern catchments. These changes should significantly increase water stress over the Mediterranean basin and exacerbate the disparities between rims. Cet article propose une méthodologie intégrant les spécificités locales du bassin Méditerranéen, afin d’évaluer l’état actuel et futur du stress hydrique de cette région identifiée comme l’une des plus vulnérables aux changements climatiques et anthropiques. L’évolution à moyen terme a été analysée sous contrainte de scénarios climatiques et d’un scénario d’usages de l’eau intégrant les recommandations de la Stratégie méditerranéenne pour le développement durable en matière d’efficience hydraulique. Les rives sud et est subissent déjà un stress hydrique élevé voire sévère. À l’horizon 2050, une diminution de 30–50 % des ressources en eau est simulée sur la majorité du bassin. Tandis que les prélèvements totaux en eau pourraient se maintenir, voire diminuer (10–40 %) sur la rive nord, ils devraient doubler sur les rives sud et est. Face à ces évolutions, le stress hydrique devrait donc s’amplifier et exacerber les disparités entre les différentes rives du bassin Méditerranéen." @default.
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• W1963783886 date "2012-09-01" @default.
• W1963783886 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
• W1963783886 title "Facing climatic and anthropogenic changes in the Mediterranean basin: What will be the medium-term impact on water stress?" @default.
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• W1963783886 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2012.07.006" @default.
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