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• W1964808119 endingPage "54" @default.
• W1964808119 startingPage "38" @default.
• W1964808119 abstract "Summary Adequate assessment of uncertainty for prediction and simulation purposes is a current issue in hydrological research. This article describes the application of the Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor (HUP) proposed by Krzystofowicz in 1999 to a small semi-arid watershed in southern Italy. The version applied in this work is a precipitation-dependent HUP aimed at assessing the hydrologic uncertainty about actual streamflow at some future time, with lead times of a few hours, given the information available at the forecast time and assuming a perfectly known amount of precipitation. The processor is based on Bayes theorem and hence models the prior and likelihood functions to obtain the revised posterior distribution. A complete example of the modelling assumptions, estimation procedure and results is carried out in the present paper. In detail, we analysed a 26-km2 semi-arid basin, considering hourly forecasts over an almost continuous five-year period in 2000–2005. A distributed rainfall–runoff model suited to represent contributions of different runoff generation mechanisms to hydrologic response is used for deterministic predictions. Analysis of the resulting posterior distributions show that hydrologic uncertainty: (i) grows with the value of discharge predicted by the model; (ii) is higher when associated with high precipitation amounts; and (iii) increases with lead time of predictions. The predictive ability of the processor is investigated for several runoff events. The results indicate good processor performance for a lead time equal to the period covered by the precipitation forecast, and a significant deterioration for higher lead times that is heavily dominated by the presumption of null precipitation beyond the forecast period. Finally, the skill of the processor is assessed through a retrospective analysis in terms of the probability of detection and the false-alarm rate." @default.
• W1964808119 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W1964808119 creator A5006556313 @default.
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• W1964808119 date "2010-05-01" @default.
• W1964808119 modified "2023-10-11" @default.
• W1964808119 title "Uncertainty assessment through a precipitation dependent hydrologic uncertainty processor: An application to a small catchment in southern Italy" @default.
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• W1964808119 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.004" @default.
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