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• W1965528564 abstract "ISEE-180 Introduction: Global climate change has been implicated in altered ecosystem and environmental quality, and resulted in, potentially, significant threat to human health. For instance, weather variability and climate change are known to impact on the dynamics of infectious diseases especially in waterborne, food-borne, and vector-borne infectious diseases, such as dengue fever, a disease presenting serious concerns in Taiwan on practically annual base. Aim: Our study was therefore aimed to examine the associations between the trends of general climate factors (e.g., temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity), and the reporting of dengue fever in Taiwan. Methods: Our study began by establishing and linking various databases, including infectious diseases case registry, weather parameters, demographic, and vector density for statistical analysis. Geographic information system (GIS) was used to map the geographic distribution of dengue fever in southern Taiwan, and its association with various climatic and environmental factors was examined since 1988, the year that dengue fever was designated as “reportable infectious disease” by the Communicable Disease Control Act in Taiwan. Results: Our findings indicated that the surveillance of domestic vector density could not predict the outbreak of dengue fever in Kaohsiung City, a hot spot for such disease in Taiwan. Yet, temperature appeared to be an effective indicator for predicting the disease outbreak. Analysis showed that when the monthly average temperature (Tmean) went higher than 27 °C, monthly average maximum temperature (Tmax) higher than 30°C and monthly average minimum temperature (Tmin) higher than 19°C in the previous month (Lag=1), the risk of the occurrence of minor outbreak (reporting case ≥17) will increase (OR=7.66, 6.70, and 4.99). Meanwhile, if the Tmean went higher than 27°C, Tmax higher than 30°C, and Tmin higher than 20°C in the previous month, the risk of occurrence of major outbreak (reporting cases ≥81) will also increase (OR=24.62, 11.65, 8.80) for the following month after adjusting for rainfall, and relative humidity. Discussion: Our study suggests that compared with the vector densities index, temperature is an effective predictor for an outbreak of dengue fever by using the case registry and environmental data from southern Taiwan. This finding supports, with quantitative information, the proposition that as the environment became warmer, dengue fever endemic in southern Taiwan would also be worsening. Further studies may focus on developing models to estimate the associations between climate change and extreme weather events and their impacts on geographical distribution patterns of similar infectious diseases. International comparisons could be made when the scenarios are properly characterized." @default.
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• W1965528564 date "2005-09-01" @default.
• W1965528564 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W1965528564 title "TEMPERATURE CAN BE AN EFFECTIVE PREDICTOR FOR DENGUE FEVER OUTBREAK" @default.
• W1965528564 doi "https://doi.org/10.1097/00001648-200509000-00176" @default.
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