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• W1968199093 abstract "Abstract During the past fifteen years the world's economic system has suffered two shocks from massive increases in the price of oil. During this time there were conflicting forecasts of future energy developments, ranging from no problem to an ominous, more shocking third energy crunch. Although the former is probable in the near term, the latter view seems more probable in the near term, the latter view seems more likely to prevail before the end of the next decade. As a result of the two shocks which took place in 1973 and 1979, the world began to realize that the United States was no longer the marginal producer of the last barrel of crude oil needed to set market prices. Nor can OPEC alone, as recent events indicate, prices. Nor can OPEC alone, as recent events indicate, have the last word in setting market price. The energy crisis is still with us even though the industrialized countries have succeeded in deferring it for a period of time. Therefore, a world model of the supply/demand relationships for crude oil using an econometric framework was developed. The model examines the potential for worldwide energy disruption that could result from the influence of one major area [consumer(s)/supplier(s)] or a combination of areas. The model has the potential to predict whether the potential for a third energy crunch is real or not. potential for a third energy crunch is real or not. If that potential exists, the model will determine when that is likely to occur and will further help in projecting future relationships between supply/demand projecting future relationships between supply/demand and the price of oil, thereby allowing better planning and development for producers and consumers alike. Introduction The difficulty OPEC members find in agreeing on production quotas and price differentials for their production quotas and price differentials for their crudes in the face of decreasing world demand for oil and the attempts of non-OPEC oil exporters to increase their share of the market condemn the market to a continued glut at least through the 1980's. The net result for OPEC members has been a sharp drop in oil revenues, reaching 50 percent in some cases last year. The negative aspect of this decline in revenue is the disruption it is causing of development plans and public and private expenditure programs within the public and private expenditure programs within the OPEC nations. The probable outcome of continuing current policies, which emphasize increased oil production by non-OPEC members, is the return to a production by non-OPEC members, is the return to a situation similar to that which prevailed in the 1960's - a surplus oil market affecting downward pressure on prices. pressure on prices. Unless the prices are stabilized, the world's energy consumption could grow very rapidly. The current, temporary oil glut has in no way eliminated the world's vulnerability to eventual supply interruptions and price escalations. Increasingly, with OPEC's diminished influence, oil prices are being set by market conditions, rather than artificial control. It is in the best interest of both the producing and consuming nations to conduct their policies in ways that cause as little disruption - either political or economical - as possible. Both should realize their interdependence and act to soften the sharpest market swings. The probability of an abrupt oil shortage now appears unlikely for at least 6 to 10 years. Because of this, the shock of another sudden price escalation will probably not threaten Western nations before the early 1990's. Conversely, the stage now appears to be set for oil prices to decline substantially over the next few years in real terms, and probably in nominal ones as well. This downward price shock will stimulate the growth of energy consumption, but will also negatively impact many bank's loan portfolios." @default.
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• W1968199093 date "1985-09-22" @default.
• W1968199093 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W1968199093 title "Risk Weighting World Energy Price Stability" @default.
• W1968199093 doi "https://doi.org/10.2118/14382-ms" @default.
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