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- W1968381009 abstract "Abstract Three approaches to economic evaluations that have been widely discussed in the literature are decision trees, Monte Carlo simulation, and real options. Authors have shown that the incorporation of decision tree logic into Monte Carlo simulation offers an added degree of insight into the evaluation, and generally provides a more realistic valuation of an asset by incorporating some degree of management decision making. While probabilistic economics (either decision trees or Monte Carlo simulations) and real options differ significantly in the type and amount of input data, as well as the format and applicability of output, they both have capability to capture some value of active decision making by management. This paper attempts to bridge the gap between the two approaches, at least conceptually, for the practicing engineer. Rather than take an academic approach, the authors illustrate key points through real world examples. Also, since discount factors are often considered the most fundamental difference between the discounted cash flow and options pricing approaches, the implications of that issue are discussed as well. Finally, attempts to compensate option-pricing algorithms such as the classic Black and Scholes are discussed, in an effort to incorporate more reality into real options evaluations." @default.
- W1968381009 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W1968381009 date "2001-09-30" @default.
- W1968381009 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W1968381009 title "Real Options and Probabilistic Economics: Bridging the Gap" @default.
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- W1968381009 doi "https://doi.org/10.2118/71408-ms" @default.
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