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- W1971700669 abstract "We outline the history of election night forecasting in Australia. We first identify the major structural features of the Australian voting system which determine how the problem must be approached: single‐member constituencies; preferential voting; the counting on election night, in polling booths, of first preference votes only: and the existence of a two‐party system. We note that the major statistical difficulty associated with election night forecasting in Australia is that progressive counts in a seat, far from being random samples of the votes cast, are non‐random and systematically biased samples. We finally outline the increasingly sophisticated computer models which have been used to correct for this bias, culminating in the ‘matched polling places’ model implemented by the Australian Electoral Commission at the 1990 election, which has effectively eliminated the problem of bias." @default.
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- W1971700669 date "1991-03-01" @default.
- W1971700669 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W1971700669 title "Some approaches to election night forecasting in Australia" @default.
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- W1971700669 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/00323269108402135" @default.
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