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- W1973971844 abstract "Evaluation of predictability of numerical models for tropical cyclone track was performed using along-and cross-track component. The along-and cross-track bias were useful indicators that show the numerical models predictability associated with cause of errors. Since forecast errors, standard deviation and consistency index of along-track component were greater than those of cross-track component, there was some rooms for improvement in alongtrack component. There was an overall slow bias. The most accurate model was JGSM for 24-hour forecast and ECMWF for 48~96-hour forecast in direct position error, along-track error and cross-track error. ECMWF and GFS had a high variability for 24-hour forecast. The results of predictability by track type showed that most significant errors of tropical cyclone track forecast were caused by the failure to estimate the recurvature phenomenon." @default.
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- W1973971844 date "2014-12-31" @default.
- W1973971844 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W1973971844 title "Evaluation of the Numerical Models' Typhoon Track Predictability Based on the Moving Speed and Direction" @default.
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- W1973971844 doi "https://doi.org/10.14191/atmos.2014.24.4.503" @default.
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