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- W1979914388 abstract "The authors review the theoretical underpinnings of the exponential model, the amount of gas discovered per unit effort, a quantity called yield-per-effort (YPE), and estimate an econometric model that represents the historical determinants of the YPE for nonassociated gas discoveries in the lower 48 states from 1943 to 1991, the entire period for which the requisite data are available. Results indicate the YPE declines as the exponential function of cumulative drilling when short run changes in drilling effort, real gas prices, and shifts between onshore and offshore are accounted for. The authors test and reject the hypothesis that technological change has arrested or reversed the long run decline in YPE. Alternative models of YPE that misrepresent the interplay of depletion and technical innovation, as well as the process of innovation itself, and the statistical and methodological shortcomings of the empirical analyses are discussed. There is growing optimism about US supplies of natural gas. Recently, the US Geological Survey increased its assessment of the recoverable conventional gas resource base by 40 percent. One reason for this increase is an apparent slowing or reversal of the historic decline in the amount of gas discovered per unit of drilling effort, a quantity calledmore » yield-per-effort (YPE). Despite the collapse in drilling effort since 1986, total annual additions to natural gas reserves have not declined significantly. Combined with changes in the economic environment of market forces, the recent improvement in YPE for discoveries leads some analysts to project that domestic gas production will be steady or will increase over the next two decades. 38 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs.« less" @default.
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- W1979914388 date "1997-04-01" @default.
- W1979914388 modified "2023-10-10" @default.
- W1979914388 title "Natural Gas in the U.S.: How Far Can Technology Stretch the Resource Base?" @default.
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- W1979914388 doi "https://doi.org/10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-vol18-no2-5" @default.
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