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- W1985351504 abstract "Climate models indicate that increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases could alter climate globally. The EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) model was used to examine the sensitivity of corn and soybean yields over the US corn belt to changes in temperature, precipitation, wind, and atmospheric CO2 concentration. A statistically representative sample of 100 corn and soybean production sites was selected from the 1987 National Resources Inventory (NRI). One-hundred-year simulations were run for each site under 36 different climate/CO2 scenarios. The results were area weighted according to the NRI area expansion factors to produce a regionally aggregated estimate of yields. EPIC did an excellent job of reproducing current regional mean expected yields under the baseline scenario. There were 3% decreases in both corn and soybean yields in response to a 2°C temperature increase at baseline precipitation levels, with larger and smaller temperature effects under drier and wetter conditions, respectively. Crop yields increased and decreased in response to increases and decreases of 10% or 20% precipitation. A 10% precipitation increase roughly balanced the negative effect of the 2°C temperature increase. Whether the precipitation changes resulted from altered precipitation event frequency or amount per event had little effect on mean crop yields; however interannual yield variability was higher when precipitation decreases were due to frequency rather than intensity. The opposite was true, though to a lesser extent, for precipitation increases. Potential evapotranspiration responded linearly to changes in mean wind speed, leading to modest changes of 1–3 days of water stress per growing season, yield increases of up to 2% for decreased wind, and yield decreases of up to 6% for increased wind. Elevated CO2 concentrations of 625 ppmv gave the greatest yield increases, + 17% for corn and + 27% for soybean at baseline temperature and precipitation levels. The relative CO2 effect was larger under drier conditions." @default.
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- W1985351504 date "1996-12-01" @default.
- W1985351504 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W1985351504 title "Sensitivity of the US corn belt to climate change and elevated CO2: I. Corn and soybean yields" @default.
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- W1985351504 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0308-521x(96)00014-5" @default.
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