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• W1990683789 abstract "For a certain class of multi-type branching processes in a continuous-time periodic environment, we show that the extinction probability is equal to (resp. less than) 1 if the basic reproduction number $$R_0$$ is less than (resp. bigger than) 1. The proof uses results concerning the asymptotic behavior of cooperative systems of differential equations. In epidemiology the extinction probability may be used as a time-periodic measure of the epidemic risk. As an example we consider a linearized SEIR epidemic model and data from the recent measles epidemic in France. Discrete-time models with potential applications in conservation biology are also discussed." @default.
• W1990683789 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W1990683789 date "2012-11-10" @default.
• W1990683789 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
• W1990683789 title "On the probability of extinction in a periodic environment" @default.
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• W1990683789 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-012-0623-9" @default.
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