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• W1990754481 abstract "This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper SPE 164816, ’Combining Geostatistics With Bayesian Updating To Continually Optimize Drilling Strategy in Shale-Gas Plays,’ by B.J.A. Willigers, BG Group; S. Begg, University of Adelaide; and R.B. Bratvold, University of Stavanger, prepared for the 2013 EAGE Annual Conference and Exhibition incorporating SPE Europec, London, 10-13 June. The paper has not been peer reviewed. The development of an economically efficient drilling program in shale-gas plays is a challenging task, requiring a large number of wells; even with many wells, the average well production and the variation of well performance (economics) remain highly uncertain. The ability to delineate a shale play with the fewest number of wells and to focus drilling in the most productive areas is an important driver of commercial success. Here, we present a new methodology for improving the economic returns of shale-gas plays. Introduction The methodology proposed in this study informs the development of drilling policies for shale-gas opportunities by use of a probabilistic model that accounts for the uncertainty in the chance of success (COS) and its spatial dependency. The model developed in this study shows how a prior view of the COS across a shale-gas play is updated as more wells are drilled. Inferred chances of success of undrilled well locations allow decision makers to react to newly arriving well data and optimize the development of a shale-gas resource. The main contributions of this paper are (1) to establish and quantify any spatial dependencies between the performances of shale-gas wells, an assessment based upon data from the Barnett shale; (2) present a comprehensive method for updating COS probabilities consistently with the arrival of new information in a play with spatial dependencies; and (3) demonstrate the approach through an analysis of data from the Barnett shale. For a discussion of previous work performed in uncertainty resolution in inconventional gas plays, including the role played by spatial dependency, please see the complete paper. Shale-Gas Economics in the Study Area Well Data. The investigated area is located in the eastern part of the Mississippian Barnett shale in the Fort Worth basin in Texas (Fig. 1). The study area covers 2100 km2 and straddles Johnson, Tarrant, and Ellis Counties. A set of 2,901 horizontal wells has been analyzed; 2,064 of these are located in the “Training” area (see later reference in this subsection). Well data include well location; date of completion; first 6-, 12-, or 24-month cumulative gas production; and the length of the well. The data originate from the US Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov)." @default.
• W1990754481 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W1990754481 date "2014-10-01" @default.
• W1990754481 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
• W1990754481 title "Combined Geostatistics and Bayesian Updating Optimize Drilling in Shale-Gas Plays" @default.
• W1990754481 doi "https://doi.org/10.2118/1014-0179-jpt" @default.
• W1990754481 hasPublicationYear "2014" @default.
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