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- W1992564480 endingPage "578" @default.
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- W1992564480 abstract "When does domestic unrest lead to interstate conflict? I present the diversionary target theory that argues that domestically troubled states are more likely to use military force against some, but not all, states because political leaders prefer targets that can evoke their domestic audience's fear or greed in order to enjoy “rally-round-the-flag” effects. I suggest that the fear-producing targets are foreign states that exhibit rapidly rising power or manifest different identities. The greed-producing targets are foreign states occupying disputed territory or exercising regional/local hegemony despite declining power. In addition, I expect that political leaders prefer fear- or greed-producing targets that possess similar powers, because domestic audiences may see initiation of military conflicts against too-powerful states or too-weak states as excessively risky and unnecessary, respectively. From statistical analyses on directed dyad-years from 1920 to 2001, I find that the presence of a rising power, a territory target, or a hegemony target contributes to the correlation between domestic unrest and the initiation of interstate conflict in a statistically significant way." @default.
- W1992564480 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W1992564480 creator A5085019594 @default.
- W1992564480 date "2013-06-24" @default.
- W1992564480 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W1992564480 title "Foreign Targets and Diversionary Conflict" @default.
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- W1992564480 doi "https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12087" @default.
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