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- W1994839249 abstract "The investigation of fluctuations of wet and dry years has a long history in the climatology and hydrology literature. In this, the first of two papers investigating runs of consecutive dry years, the lengths (persistence) of dry runs are investigated. In the second paper the magnitude/intensity and severity (length × magnitude) of dry runs will be investigated. Consecutive dry years are associated with drought, which is a significant physical and economic phenomenon that imposes great stress on ecosystems and societies. Run lengths of consecutive years equal to or below the median were analysed for 3863 precipitation and 1236 runoff stations from around the world. Run lengths were found to be similar across all continents and Köppen climate zones, expect for tropical and arid North Africa (Sahel), which showed a distinct bias toward longer run lengths than any other region of the world. Generally, the run length observed in annual runoff was found to be similar to that observed in annual precipitation for the same location. Both annual precipitation and runoff data were found to be well described by the lag-one autoregressive (AR(1)) model or by white noise. The influence of the El Niño–southern oscillation on run lengths was not observed to be significant. The presence of decadal and multi-decadal oscillations was weakly observed in the results of the precipitation runs analysis. The faintness of the decadal and multi-decadal oscillation signal may be due to the sample sizes not being long enough and/or the runs analysis not being sensitive enough to detect their presence. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society" @default.
- W1994839249 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W1994839249 creator A5063349644 @default.
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- W1994839249 date "2004-05-25" @default.
- W1994839249 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
- W1994839249 title "Global analysis of runs of annual precipitation and runoff equal to or below the median: run length" @default.
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- W1994839249 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1041" @default.
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