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- W1997194058 abstract "Dr X is back from her annual leave. Dr Y, the locum doctor, reports on the patients he saw during her absence, including a 40 year old teacher who had sprained her right ankle. Returning from a conference, she had stumbled while walking down the stairs with a heavy bag. Examination revealed a moderately swollen lateral right ankle. The patient was able to walk but was clearly in pain. Her breath smelt of alcohol.Dr Y had applied the Ottawa ankle rules—decision rules designed to exclude fractures of the malleolus and the midfoot—and found no bone tenderness.1 He had previously visited the website of a centre for evidence based medicine2 and printed out a list of diagnostic tests that can rule out, or rule in, the condition in question without requiring further investigations.The probability of disease, given a positive or negative test result (post-test probability), is usually obtained by calculating the likelihood ratio of the test result and using formulas based on Bayes's theorem (see box 1), or a nomogram,3 to convert the estimated probability of the suspected diagnosis before the test result was known (pretest probability) into a post-test probability, which takes the result into account.4 Likelihood ratios indicate how many times more likely a test result is to be expected in a patient with the disease compared with a person free of the disease and thus measure a test's ability to modify pretest probabilities.David Sackett and others have argued that such calculations are unnecessary when a test is highly sensitive or highly specific.4–6 In this situation the likelihood ratio of a negative test will generally be very small, and the likelihood ratio of a positive test very large. A negative test will thus rule out, and a positive result …" @default.
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- W1997194058 date "2004-07-22" @default.
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- W1997194058 title "Ruling a diagnosis in or out with “SpPIn” and “SnNOut”: a note of caution" @default.
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- W1997194058 doi "https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.329.7459.209" @default.
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