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• W1999398309 abstract "O ur ability to predict future behavior of natural and human systems has increased both through progress made in scientific knowledge and by our exploitation of powerful computer computations. Our ability to communicate results of this progress is, however, still very limited (cf. Henderson-Sellers 1996a). Premedieval nature was likened to a capricious god to whom prayer was necessary because predictions were so uncertain. The sixteenthto twentieth-century scientists reduced universe to clockwork: operated by simple and all encompassing laws. Now, at end of twentieth century, chaos theory has demonstrated that even simple laws can generate unpredictable behavior. As science communicators, however, we may have still more difficult issues than methodology to overcome. National and international responses to environmental change are being discussed in board rooms, governments, and media. Phrases like the uncertainty in scenarios appear to carry meaning, but available information seems to be incomplete at best and, at worst, totally debased by multiple definitions and usages. Scenarios are predictions of possible futures. The degree of certainty or uncertainty that characterizes them encompasses prejudices, competing perspectives, and incompleteness of information, as well as differences in completeness, accuracy, and sensitivity of various forecasting tools. Some perceived reasons for uncertainty include lack of economic evaluation, failure to identify sources of funds, lack of motivation, desire not to lose impetus or face, need to await environmental impact (or integrated) assessment, and lack of agreed criteria for selection of strategies. In all types of environmental assessment, critical interface is between predicted change in (physical) environment and societal response. Most assessment processes require that this interface occur at a spatial scale roughly commensurate with size of a nation-state: a scale often loosely termed regional. Current methods range from sequential evaluation systems comprising model(s), scenarios, impacts, and policy responses, and integrated assessment techniques apparently encompassing all features contained in models and their interactions and feedbacks among components. The integrated-assessment modelers are becoming a major user group for other (e.g., economic) model results while increasingly acting as gatekeepers, facilitating flow of information from scientists to users. Geographers are often professionally interested in and well equipped to join these interface or gatekeeper groups. Harman et al. recognize that geographers are increasingly involved in public-policy developments predicated in science that is either immature or incomplete. Since essence of geography is a scholarly view of human/natural interface, this is in no way surprising, but perhaps we should ask instead how well prepared geographers are for role of ethical communicators and facilitators of judgments relating to this interface. I believe that Harman et al. (1998) raise important issues in their lead essay for this Forum. They argue that scientists' public declarations on environmental issues should make clear likely consequences of their declared views. They challenge us all to be both effective and ethical communicators. Certainly we should try. My thesis, however, transcends theirs. I am increasingly of opinion that, whatever researchers' scientific, ethical, or symbolic value system might be, or however effectively they discharge their professional duties in light of these values, complexity of modern institutions and communications channels create operating environments in which proper interpretations are very difficult indeed. This timely and valuable forum discussion poses for us all questions about ways in which we deal with ethical and scientific tensions. In this paper, I shall try to illustrate both their" @default.
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• W1999398309 date "1998-06-01" @default.
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• W1999398309 title "Communicating Science Ethically: Is the “Balance” Achievable?" @default.
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• W1999398309 doi "https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8306.00098" @default.
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