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- W2000293053 abstract "Abstract Many deepwater exploration prospects are composed of multiple stacked zones of pay. In general, each zone has a geologic probability of success, a probability of oil, and a distribution of technically recoverable volumes. The composite distribution of technically recoverable volumes must be determined by stochastically adding together the recoverable volume distributions of each zone, while allowing for the fact that, in any given realization, one or more zones may geologically fail, and the successful zones may comprise a mixture of oil and gas zones. Frequently, the composite, technically recoverable volume distribution is then used as a starting point to determine the economic value of the prospect, under the assumption that the prospect can be treated as if it were a single zone. In this paper we carry out a full stochastic economic analysis of a typical multi-zone, deepwater exploration prospect in the Gulf of Mexico, and contrast this with the results of a simplified analysis in which it is assumed that the composite technically recoverable volume has been found in a single zone. This simplifying assumption can lead to inaccuracies and inconsistencies in the economic analysis. In the full multi-zone case it is quite possible that the stacked zones are composed of a mixture of oil and gas zones. This can only be treated in the simplified case by assuming that costs are largely independent of the hydrocarbon type and mix. In the full analysis the mixed oil and gas case can be handled robustly. We have also found that the simplifying assumption of a single zone can lead to a significant underestimation of the number of wells required to develop a prospect. This, in turn, leads to overoptimistic economics." @default.
- W2000293053 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W2000293053 creator A5032340859 @default.
- W2000293053 date "2002-09-29" @default.
- W2000293053 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
- W2000293053 title "Exploration Economics of Multizone Prospects: A Comparison With Single Zone Approximations" @default.
- W2000293053 cites W1972618579 @default.
- W2000293053 cites W2055320898 @default.
- W2000293053 doi "https://doi.org/10.2118/77420-ms" @default.
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