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- W2000793850 abstract "Abstract This paper proposes a strategy to increase the efficiency of forecast combination. Given the availability of a wide range of forecasts for the same variable of interest, our goal is to apply combining methods to a restricted set of models. With this aim, a hierarchical procedure based on an encompassing test is considered. First, forecasting models are ranked according to a measure of predictive accuracy (RMSFE). The models are then selected for combination such that each forecast is not encompassed by any of the competing forecasts. Thus the hierarchical procedure represents a compromise between model selection and model averaging. The robustness of the procedure is investigated in terms of the relative RMSFE using ISAE (Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses) short-term forecasting models for monthly industrial production in Italy." @default.
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- W2000793850 date "2010-10-01" @default.
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- W2000793850 title "A hierarchical procedure for the combination of forecasts" @default.
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- W2000793850 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.09.006" @default.
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