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• W2002111751 abstract "Three widely used classes of methods for forecasting national populations are reviewed: demographic accounting/cohort-component methods for long-range projections, statistical time series methods for short-range forecasts, and structural modeling methods for the simulation and forecasting of the effects of policy changes. In each case, the major characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of the methods are described. Factors that place intrinsic limits on the accuracy of population forecasts are articulated. Promising lines of additional research by statisticians and demographers are identified for each class of methods and for population forecasting generally." @default.
• W2002111751 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W2002111751 creator A5036555534 @default.
• W2002111751 date "1986-12-01" @default.
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• W2002111751 title "Methods for National Population Forecasts: A Review" @default.
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• W2002111751 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1986.10478347" @default.
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