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• W2004879971 abstract "Statistics of the recurrence times of great earthquakes at the Pacific subduction margins are made. The mean return period of great earthquakes is different from zone to zone, ranging from 27 to 117 years. The standard deviation of the return period proves to be very small, several years say, in some cases. The probabilities of a great earthquake recurring in each zone are estimated on the basis of Weibull distribution analysis. The mean return periods thus estimated are combined with the relative plate velocities at respective zones as obtained in the plate tectonics in order to estimate the ultimate displacement to rupture at the interface of the continental plate and the downgoing oceanic plate. It is presumed that great earthquakes at subduction zones occur as a result of a rebound of the continental plate at the time of rupture. The ultimate displacement thus estimated ranges from 2 to 8 m, and seems somewhat larger than that estimated on the basis of seismic observations, although the value of ultimate displacement seems to harmonize roughly with estimates based on geodetic observations on land. However, the ultimate displacement at the Aleutian—Alaska zone as estimated here seems much smaller than that estimated from actual observations. The ultimate strains, which are deduced from the displacements obtained on the assumption that the logarithmic extent of the deformed area is proportional to earthquake magnitude, are then calculated, and compared with those estimated for large inland earthquakes as revealed by repetition of geodetic surveys. The mean ultimate strain is estimated as 4.3 · 10−5 for subduction-zone earthquakes while that for inland earthquakes has been estimated as 4.7 · 10−5. As the agreement between both the ultimate strains is fairly good, it is tentatively concluded that the strength of the plate interface under the sea bottom is more or less the same as that in the crust on land." @default.
• W2004879971 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W2004879971 date "1976-11-01" @default.
• W2004879971 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
• W2004879971 title "Recurrence of great earthquakes at subduction zones" @default.
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• W2004879971 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(76)90075-5" @default.
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