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• W2005012803 abstract "1. Introduction The issues of unemployment and output are central to many macroeconomic policy debates. A major source of disagreement among policymakers deals with the maximum sustainable level of output growth that is consistent with the absence of inflation. When the economy's rate of output growth exceeds the maximum sustainable rate, there will be upward pressure on the economy's overall price level. Traditional macroeconomic theory emphasizes the role that tight labor markets play in this inflationary pressure. The commonly held belief is that, in a tight labor market, firms must bid workers away from other firms if they wish to expand the size of their workforce. Hence, labor costs in the economy will tend to rise. Since labor is a major input in the production of virtually all goods and services, an increase in labor costs without an accompanying increase in productivity will tend to increase the economy's overall price level. Conversely, when the economy contracts, labor costs in the economy will tend to fall, inducing a downward movement in the economy's overall price level. The labor market is therefore linked to changes in economic activity and to changes in the economy's price level. A common feature in many macroeconomic models is the connection between departures from the equilibrium rate of unemployment (i.e., the natural or normal rate) and the business cycle. These macroeconomic models suggest that unanticipated departures from a steady state in the output market should be related to departures of the actual unemployment rate from the normal rate. However, the economy's aggregate unemployment rate is actually a weighted average of the unemployment rates of various demographic groups. The rate of each demographic group is influenced by that group's flows into and out of unemployment. Since many of the factors that determine these flows have been found to differ by demographic group, it is expected that a given aggregate output shock may have differential effects on the unemployment rates of various groups. This article focuses on how unanticipated changes in real output affect the unemployment rate of different demographic groups. We examine the time-series behavior of black male, white male, black female, and white female monthly unemployment rates over the January 1972August 1999 period. Specifically, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) and then conduct simulations in the form of impulse responses to determine the extent to which each of these unemployment rates is affected by an aggregate output shock (i.e., an unanticipated change in aggregate output). We compare and contrast the magnitude and the persistence of these responses across the groups. Because the traditional impulse response function generated from a VAR is sensitive to how the researcher chooses to order the variables, with different orderings often giving vastly different results, we employ the recently developed generalized impulse response function (Koop, Pesaran, and Potter 1996; Pesaran and Shin 1998). This technique allows researchers to examine impulse responses that are robust to changes in ordering. In the following sections, we highlight the major literature that this article builds upon and then we discuss the basics behind the nature of the relationship between the unemployment rate and output. A discussion of the data, the methodology, and the results follows. The article closes with concluding remarks and policy implications. 2. Related Literature A number of studies have examined racial differences in unemployment rates and in factors that may affect unemployment rates. Using data on displaced workers, Fairlie and Kletzer (1998) examine racial differences in job displacement over the years 1984-1992 and find that black males experienced greater rates of job displacement and lower rates of reemployment than white males. Petterson (1998) uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth for the 19791986 period to examine the reservation wages of black males compared with those of white males and, contrary to earlier research, argues that these differences do not explain much (if any) of the racial employment gap. …" @default.
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• W2005012803 date "2002-01-01" @default.
• W2005012803 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W2005012803 title "The Differential Effects of Output Shocks on Unemployment Rates by Race and Gender" @default.
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• W2005012803 doi "https://doi.org/10.2307/1061719" @default.
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