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- W2009403908 abstract "Although demographers by hard experience are quite uneasy with population forecasts beyond a few decades a much longer run demographic scenario for the world as a whole seems to be widely accepted. This scenario seen in the standard UN and World Bank projections shows a final doubling of world population over the next century or so to reach some 10 or 11 billion people. Thereafter it is implied the eventfulness of past demographic history will be replaced by an endless stretch of zero population growth on a placid if somewhat congested plateau. this excursion into demographic speculation written in the early 1960s Hoyle displays characteristic originality insight and provocativeness to a different and no less plausible long-term global future one with recurrent population expansions and collapses. Hoyle dismisses classic Malthusian-type adjustments as major positive checks on population growth. Malthus and many subsequent writers take the seemingly obvious view that where birth rates do not drop rapid population growth must eventually be curtailed by an edging up of death rates. Hoyle argues that any technologically complex society is no longer a candidate for this marginalist death-rate equilibrium; the usual form of biological control has ceased to be relevant. Hoyles view a new kind of control will emerge however taking the form of organizational breakdown leading to global population collapse--a possibility that is only too apparent in the nuclear age. This initial projected cycle and its repetitions over the next 5000 years or so amply justify Hoyles own characterization of his conclusions: In some ways more horrible in some ways more hopeful and certainly in all ways less dull than those of Malthus. (authors modified)" @default.
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- W2009403908 title "Fred Hoyle on the Argument of Malthus" @default.
- W2009403908 doi "https://doi.org/10.2307/1973224" @default.
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