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• W2010090733 abstract "The United States Department of Energy's (DOE) quarterly price forecasts for energy commodities are examined to determine the incremental information provided at the one-through four-quarter forecast horizons. A direct test for determining information content at alternative forecast horizons, developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez [Vuchelen, J. and Gutierrez, M.-I. “A Direct Test of the Information Content of the OECD Growth Forecasts.” International Journal of Forecasting. 21(2005):103–117.], is used. The results suggest that the DOE's price forecasts for crude oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel do indeed provide incremental information out to three-quarters ahead, while natural gas and electricity forecasts are informative out to the four-quarter horizon. In contrast, the DOE's coal price forecasts at two-, three-, and four-quarters ahead provide no incremental information beyond that provided for the one-quarter horizon. Recommendations of how to use these results for making forecast adjustments is also provided." @default.
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• W2010090733 date "2009-03-01" @default.
• W2010090733 modified "2023-10-01" @default.
• W2010090733 title "Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts: The DOE's energy price forecasts" @default.
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• W2010090733 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2008.08.010" @default.
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