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- W201040066 abstract "Questions surrounding the interpretation of probability forecasts based on these multi-model ensemble simulations are then considered; the distributions considered are formed by kernel dressing the ensemble and blending with the climatology. The sources of apparent (RMS) skill in distributions based on multi-model simulations is discussed, and it is demonstrated that the inclusion of zero-skill models in the long range can improve Root-Mean-Square-Error scores, casting some doubt on the common justification for the claim that all models should be included in forming an operational probability forecast. It is argued that the rational response varies with lead time." @default.
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- W201040066 date "2010-05-01" @default.
- W201040066 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W201040066 title "Skill of Ensemble Seasonal Probability Forecasts" @default.
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