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• W2011604840 abstract ": This paper reviews the period 1965-84, providing an analysis of the contribution of provincial budgets to regional stabilization and the impact of budgets on the financial position of provincial governments. The perversity hypothesis, which proposes that provincial budgetary behaviour may serve to exacerbate rather than reduce cyclical swings in local economies, is examined. An effort is made to differentiate between the automatic and discretionary components of provincial budgets, by calculating cyclically and inflation-adjusted revenues, expenditures and budget balances. A budget balance analysis arrives at the following conclusions: the behaviour of provincial budgets, including both automatic and discretionary components, was stabilizing, for the most part, during the study period; however, in most cases, discretionary budgetary policy was perverse. A regression analysis arrives at the following conclusions: in Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, both revenue and expenditure policy demonstrated neutral cyclical behaviour during the study period; in Nova Scotia and British Columbia, destabilizing expenditure-side behaviour offset stabilizing revenue-side behaviour, while in Quebec, Ontario and Alberta, stabilizing expenditure changes may have dominated destabilizing revenue changes; in Nova Scotia and Manitoba, the long-run rate of expenditure growth exceeded the rate of revenue growth, suggesting a possible structural deficit problem, while the other provinces appear to have exercised greater financial control; and provincial expenditure policy was affected by the electoral cycle, while revenue policy appears to have been unaffected. It is expected that provincial involvement in cyclical regulation will be limited in the immediate future and that the provinces will take further steps to shore up their finances, following the stresses that were imposed on their budgets by the last recession.Sommaire: Cet article passe en revue la periode 1965–1984 et analyse le role des budgets provinciaux dans la stabilisation regionale et leur impact sur la situation financiere des gouvernements provinciaux. Les auteurs examinent l'hypothese de l‘“effet pervers” selon lequel la politique budgetaire provinciale accentuerait les revirements cycliques de l’economie locale au lieu de les attenuer. Ils tentent de faire la distinction entre les elements automatiques et discretionnaires des budgets provinciaux en calculant les recettes, les depenses et les soldes budgetaires ajustes en tenant compte de leur aspect cyclique et de l'inflation. Une analyse du solde budgetaire mene aux conclusions suivantes: les budgets provinciaux, et leurs elements automatiques et discretionnaires, ont eu en general un effet stabilisateur pendant la periode etudiee; cependant, dans la plupart des cas, la politique budgetaire discretionnaire a eu un effet pervers. Une analyse de regression mene aux constatations suivantes: a Terre-Neuve, au Nouveau-Brunswick, au Manitoba et en Saskatchewan, les politiques de recettes et de depenses ont eu un effet cyclique neutre pendant la periode etudiee; en Nouvelle-Ecosse et en Colombie-Britannique, l'effet destabilisateur des depenses a annule l'effet stabilisateur des recettes, tandis qu'au Quebec, en Ontario et en Alberta, il semble que les changements stabilisateurs dans les depenses aient domine les changements destabilisateurs dans les recettes; en Nouvelle-Ecosse et au Manitoba, le taux de croissance a long terme des depenses a ete superieur au taux de croissance des recettes, ce qui est peut-etre le signe d'un probleme de deficit structurel, bien que les autres provinces semblent exercer un plus grand controle financier; la politique provinciale de depenses a subi les contrecoups du cycle electoral alors que la politique de recettes ne semble pas avoir ete touchee. On prevoit que l'intervention provinciale dans la reglementation cyclique sera limitee dans un proche avenir et que les provinces prendront de nouvelles mesures pour consolider leurs finances, suite aux contraintes budgetaires que la derniere recession leur a imposee." @default.
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• W2011604840 date "1988-04-01" @default.
• W2011604840 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W2011604840 title "Evaluating provincial budgetary policy" @default.
• W2011604840 doi "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1754-7121.1988.tb02145.x" @default.
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