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- W2012203697 abstract "Since there are major gaps in scientific knowledge about the greenhouse effect, policy makers are forced to rely on scientists' judgments about the rate of climate change and its effects. It now appears that significant policy decisions will have to be made despite continuing uncertainty and disagreement among scientists. The best that policy makers can do is look for guidance in the best available expert judgment. But when the best experts express great uncertainty and disagree, as seems to be the case with the greenhouse effect, policy makers are unsure about how to proceed. Despite its importance, scientific judgment about the greenhouse effect has not been systematically studied. Psychological research on expert judgment and decision making provides theory, methods, and empirical results that can be used to study judgments based on uncertain and incomplete data and can help to explain the sources of expert uncertainty and disagreement regarding the greenhouse effect. Possible explanations are discussed. Puisqu'il existe des lacunes importantes dans notre connaissance scientifique de l'effet de serre, les décideurs politiques sont forcés de dépendre des jugements des scientistes sur les taux de changement climatique et ses effets. Il apparaît maintenant que des décisions politiques significatives devront être prises en dépit de l'incertitude continue et des désaccords entre les scientistes. Le mieux que peuvent faire les décideurs politiques est de suivre les avis des meilleurs jugements d'expert disponibles. Mais lorsque les meilleurs experts expriment une grande incertitude et sont en désaccord, comme ce semble être le cas pour l'effet de serre, les décideurs politiques ne savent plus très bien comment procéder. En dépit de son importance, le jugement scientifique concernant l'effet de serre n'a pas été étudié systématiquement. La recherche psychologique sur le jugement expert et la prise de décision fournit une théorie, des méthodes de recherche et des données empiriques qui peuvent être utilisés pour étudier des jugements basés sur l'incertitude et des données incomplètes et qui peuvent aider à mieux comprendre les sources d'incertitude chez les experts, ainsi que leurs désaccords. Des explications possibles pour l'incertitude et le désaccord des scientistes concernant l'effet de serre sont présentées." @default.
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- W2012203697 title "Scientists' Uncertainty and Disagreement About Global Climate Change: A Psychological Perspective" @default.
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- W2012203697 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/00207599108247144" @default.
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