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- W2012259611 abstract "SINCE the 2001 election there have been stark changes in the fortunes of the leader of the Labour Party and in the personnel leading the Conservatives. Of the main national parties only the leadership of the Liberal Democrats was relatively stable in terms of public perceptions and occupancy, and even Charles Kennedy had his share of negative publicity relating primarily to his social life and political commitment. Yet has this leadership flux made a difference? Can we say that the electorate’s voting preferences in 2005 were affected by the varying fates of the party leaderships over the electoral cycle? The goal of this chapter is to examine the influence of the electorate’s evaluations of the main party leaders on voting in the 2005 election. We start by examining public opinion polls showing some of the main features of the changing appraisals of party leaders. We then examine the impact of leader images on voting intentions in 2005 using the British Election Study. We do this by estimating a model of influences on voting decisions that includes enduring values, election-specific issues and assessments of the government’s record, social background variables, various indicators of partisanship, and, of course, perceptions of the party leaders. Though cautioning against making strong causal interpretations based on estimates of leadership effects using cross-sectional evidence, we conclude that appraisals of Blair, Howard, and Kennedy were indeed significantly and strongly related to vote in 2005. Blair’s decline in popularity appears to have cost Labour a substantial number of votes, but Howard’s appeal was too lukewarm for the Conservatives to benefit fully." @default.
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- W2012259611 date "2005-10-01" @default.
- W2012259611 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W2012259611 title "The Impact of Party Leaders: How Blair Lost Labour Votes" @default.
- W2012259611 doi "https://doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsi065" @default.
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