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• W2013297002 abstract "Although elimination of bias by random allocation of an intervention and blinded assessment of its outcome was first reported as early as 1884,1Peirce CS Jastrow J On small differences of sensation..Memoirs Nat Acad Sci. 1884; 3: 73-83Google Scholar it was not until 1948, with the publication of the UK Medical Research Council's trial of streptomycin for pulmonary tuberculosis,2Medical Research CouncilStreptomycin treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis..BMJ. 1948; ii: 769-782Google Scholar that the Age of Experiment replaced the Age of Experience.3Horton R A manifesto for reading medicine..Lancet. 1997; 349: 872-874Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (18) Google ScholarBut how rapidly in the past 50 years did the randomised controlled trial (RCT) become today's widespread and preferred method for the evaluation of medical interventions? What was the time trend of its adoption into medical research? To investigate this, I manually searched the original articles in The Lancet between 1948 and 1997.In each of the 100 6-monthly volumes from 1948 to 1997, a month was picked by throwing a die. In each randomly chosen month's weekly issues the total number of original articles and the number of those reporting RCTs were counted. The ratio of RCTs to the total number of original articles was calculated for these 2 months and assumed to represent the ratio for that year.The figure shows that from 1950 to 1970 RCTs are sporadically reported (<5% of original articles), and from 1970 to 1985 reports of RCTs gradually increase and reach a plateau (at about 15% of original articles) which lasts until 1995. The past 2 years have witnessed a surge in the percentage of RCTs reported to 40% of articles.Use of every new tool is initially parsimonious. This was also the case for the RCT. It is not until 20–25 years after their introduction that reports of RCTs begin to flourish in The Lancet. The 1970s marks the “irresistible rise” of the RCTs in medical research. Although elimination of bias by random allocation of an intervention and blinded assessment of its outcome was first reported as early as 1884,1Peirce CS Jastrow J On small differences of sensation..Memoirs Nat Acad Sci. 1884; 3: 73-83Google Scholar it was not until 1948, with the publication of the UK Medical Research Council's trial of streptomycin for pulmonary tuberculosis,2Medical Research CouncilStreptomycin treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis..BMJ. 1948; ii: 769-782Google Scholar that the Age of Experiment replaced the Age of Experience.3Horton R A manifesto for reading medicine..Lancet. 1997; 349: 872-874Summary Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (18) Google Scholar But how rapidly in the past 50 years did the randomised controlled trial (RCT) become today's widespread and preferred method for the evaluation of medical interventions? What was the time trend of its adoption into medical research? To investigate this, I manually searched the original articles in The Lancet between 1948 and 1997. In each of the 100 6-monthly volumes from 1948 to 1997, a month was picked by throwing a die. In each randomly chosen month's weekly issues the total number of original articles and the number of those reporting RCTs were counted. The ratio of RCTs to the total number of original articles was calculated for these 2 months and assumed to represent the ratio for that year. The figure shows that from 1950 to 1970 RCTs are sporadically reported (<5% of original articles), and from 1970 to 1985 reports of RCTs gradually increase and reach a plateau (at about 15% of original articles) which lasts until 1995. The past 2 years have witnessed a surge in the percentage of RCTs reported to 40% of articles. Use of every new tool is initially parsimonious. This was also the case for the RCT. It is not until 20–25 years after their introduction that reports of RCTs begin to flourish in The Lancet. The 1970s marks the “irresistible rise” of the RCTs in medical research." @default.
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• W2013297002 title "Randomised controlled trials in The Lancet" @default.
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• W2013297002 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(05)78475-0" @default.
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