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• W2014872123 abstract "The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) Ocean Model, provided by INGV, has been chosen as case study to analyze Lagrangian trajectory predictability by means of a dynamical systems approach. To this regard, numerical trajectories are tested against a large amount of Mediterranean drifter data, used as sample of the actual tracer dynamics across the sea. The separation rate of a trajectory pair is measured by computing the Finite-Scale Lyapunov Exponent (FSLE) of first and second kind. An additional kinematic Lagrangian model (KLM), suitably treated to avoid “sweeping”-related problems, has been nested into the MFS in order to recover, in a statistical sense, the velocity field contributions to pair particle dispersion, at mesoscale level, smoothed out by finite resolution effects. Some of the results emerging from this work are: (a) drifter pair dispersion displays Richardson's turbulent diffusion inside the [10–100] km range, while numerical simulations of MFS alone (i.e., without subgrid model) indicate exponential separation; (b) adding the subgrid model, model pair dispersion gets very close to observed data, indicating that KLM is effective in filling the energy “mesoscale gap” present in MFS velocity fields; (c) there exists a threshold size beyond which pair dispersion becomes weakly sensitive to the difference between model and “real” dynamics; (d) the whole methodology here presented can be used to quantify model errors and validate numerical current fields, as far as forecasts of Lagrangian dispersion are concerned." @default.
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• W2014872123 date "2014-11-01" @default.
• W2014872123 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
• W2014872123 title "Lagrangian predictability characteristics of an Ocean Model" @default.
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• W2014872123 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jc010313" @default.
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